Arizona Cardinals - Jeff Gollin 2012 Blog

Tim Hasselbeck and Marcellus Wylie - who, on April 2, voted the Cardinals' off-season "the worst in the NFL.
(Who will be next on the list? (I'm watching you).

"Another Fluid PreDraft Week" - Sat. March 31, 2012 - Two events could logically influence the direction of the draft. First was the injury to Eagle OT Jason Peters (which could reduce the likelihood that Demetrus Bell will land in the desert and place extra pressure on the Cardinals to draft for a need at LT). Second was the signing of smashmouth Giant RB Brandon Jacobs by the Niners (which, in turn could pressure other NFL West teams - including the Cardinals - to "draft for defensive size and toughness" instead of speed). If the draft were held to day, I'd see our most likely options being DeCastro, Ingram and/or Keuchly. I'd be happy with any of the three, but in the unlikely event none were there, I'd be tempted to try and trade down for at least one extra pick.

Update on 7 Round Mock - While putting together Top 221's, Top 13 Board, Position Rankers etc., it dawned on me that there are two different Boards that teams would logically assemble prior to a real or mock draft: (1) "The Players as the Team Views Them" and (2) "The Way Other Teams View Them" (i.e. where they'd be likely to come off the board).

Because each team has its own drafting priorities (& own scouts), their view of the talent pool will differ slightly from the other 31 NFL teams (including the Cardinals). As a result, there will be typically at least a few highly valued players (as we view them) who will fall to us at each point in the draft, thereby, to our mind, providing better value than the pick deserves, resulting than a better-than-average overall draft from year to year.

When laying out seven round mocks, it's important we avoid the hazard of "using our own board" to figure out who will or won't be available at each pick (because we'd run out of quality picks early- every player we like will come off the board early but that's unlikely to happen in "real life" because other teams won't like all of them as much as we do). A more realistic way to do it is to use respective third-party draft board as an indicator of where players are expected to be drafted round by round. So that's what I did.

Updated Gollin 7 Round Mock - Tuesday March 27, 2012 - The compensatory picks have been made and, although the official draft order hasn't been released by the NFL, Mike Sando and ASFN's JoeSchmo's renditions were nearly identical so I decided to use Sando's. I did something different this year - I created a chart (based on CBSportsline's overall player rankings) showing the best available player for each position at each point where we pick, and from those players, I made my projection. Here they are:

13. DeCastro G (2nd Option: Keuchly ILB)
80. J Brown OL (2nd Option: Kendricks ILB. 3rd Option: Ta'amu NT)
112. Matthews WR (2nd Option Blake C. 3rd Option: Wilber OLB)
151. B. Taylor S (2nd Option: Bryan TE)
177. Foles QB (2nd Option: Datko OL)
185. Fangupo DT (2nd Option: Igwenagu TE/FB)
221. Carder LB

Looking Forward - Mon. March 26, 2012 - It's been a productive mop-up week. Tax stuff was over at with the CPA 2 days before our self-imposed St. Paddy's Day deadline. So I was finally able to focus on putting the finishing touches on the 2012 Big Red Sheet Draft Guide. The Position Rankers Chart (which I'll update a few times between now and Draft Day) and Player Analysis by Position, are now in place. (I'll continue to update player write-ups as more Pro Day and other info dribbles in.

Free Agency Update
Cards just signed former Steeler CB William Gay - who is expected to replace the versatility of the departed Richard Marshall. The LT situation remains unaddressed, though it appears that Buffalo has dropped out of the race to sign leading FA contender Demetrius Bell, leaving it to the Cardinals and Redskins to compete for his services. More and more fans are throwing in the emotional towel and are making the rationalization that "Levi and Keith really played a lot better in the second half of last season", and we'll be OK with Levi still at LT. But there are some of us who feel that the absence of a better option at LT will place too much pressure on Rod Graves to "reach for need" and pass up more talented players in order to address the left tackle situation in the April draft. Meanwhile, on the pass-rushing front, we're aware of no activity to sign a FA edge rusher. We are said to be "cap-tight", but - given the amount of Inconsistent and incomplete information about our cap status, it's very frustrating having to "guess" about where we are and how "over" or "under" we actually are right now.

Scoping the Draft
Til now, I've refrained from doing mocks or predicting Cardinal draft strategy because it was too early and there were too many other variables (including free agency) to clear away. Well let's just say that Phase 1 is nearly over. Time to move into Phase 2:

There appear to be three strategies open to the Cardinal FO: (1) Draft the best available athlete from our short list of 13, (2) Reach for need (most probably at LT but possibly a wide receiver or pass rusher or (3) Trade down (probably into the early twenties) in order to replace our lost ("Kolb") 2nd round pick.

It's unclear who'll be available at #13 if we go the BPA route - most notable names being the WR (Floyd), OG (DeCastro), RB (Richardson), OT (Reiff), DE/LB's (Ingram or Upshaw) or the ILB cruncher (Kuechly). What is doubly unclear, however, is where these and other prospects are slotted on the Cardinals' Top 13 board. For all we know, the Cardinal staff may be in love with one of the NT's (Poe or Brockers).
If the Cards do reach for need (note - even if they do this, they'll never admit it), they could draft Stanford LT Jonathon Martin. Or they could decide to play musical chairs on the O-line and draft DeCastro as an indirect "need" pick. Or they could target a receiver and - if, as expected, Blackmon and Floyd are gone - roll the dice on Ga. Tech burner, Stephen Hill.
But just as likely is that the Cards have either (a) decided to trade down in order to regain their lost pick or (b) have a sjort list of 4 or 5 players they hope will be available at #13 and will trade out of the spot should all of those players be no longer available. If we do trade down, this draft appears deep in good, though not-elite offensive linemen and quality defensive tackles and we could help ourselves a lot by regaining our lost #2.

It's hard to figure. Maybe things will seem clearer as we get closer to the draft, but I suspect, we'll be in the dark until Draft Day itself. Catch you later.

Onward! - Sun. March 18, 2012 - To quote the late Satchel Paige: "Don't look back; someone might be gaining on you." The Manning era (aka "Operation Wheelspin") is over. Time to focus on Cardinal needs in the midst of free agency and we approach the draft. I've reviewed and updated the current Cardinal roster and offer an assessment of our strengths and weakenesses - position by position/player by player - in order to sort out our manpower strategy going forward. Check it out.

Our roster-needs should come as no great surprise: Protecting our concussion-prone QB (and his competitor) will require a major upgrade at OT - especially LT (since the recently re-signed Levi Brown is thought to be better suited over there. It's been about 3-decades since the Cardinal offense has flourished behind dominant offensive lines. Since the transition from Air Coryell to the pre-Buddy Ryan era, the Cardinal OL has been treated as a step-child (with only brief flurries of panic-driven activity of the kind that brought in Anthony Clement, Leonard Davis,LJ Shelton and Alan Faneca with questionable results). Facing a dwindling pool of FA talent and not wanting to make another Levi Brown mistake by reaching for a #20 tackle at #13 in the draft, the Cardinal FO needs to be obsessed with fixing the problem (part of Skelton's and Kolbs miserable QB ratings were due to pass protection considerably south of adequate).

One thing that could upgrade our QB play (other than better pass pro and improvement by the QB's themselves) would be better separation by our WR's (once considered position of strength but now area of potential danger). Neither Early Doucet nor Andre Roberts have lived up to expectations as a rock-solid "good hands" #2 option opposite Larry Fitzgerald, and Doucet, a FA, is likely to jump ship. Fortunately, this year's FA and draft pools are flush with wideouts and we should be able to get one - but not at #13.

The third item on the Cardinal shopping list figures to be a pass rusher. Joey Porter's production has tailed off this past year, and appears closer and closer to calling it a career. Underrated were the performance of OLB's O'Brien Schofield and Sam Acho. And oft forgotten is the sack production from DE Calais Campbell. Still, Ray Horton is said to desire a little more pop in the Cardinal pass rush. It could come via the signing of a FA like Cameron Wimbley or via the draft.

This is just subjective on my part, but I'd like to see us more consistent and productive stopping the run. Vehicles for achieving this goal would come in the form of either (a) more sand in our pants at NT behind Dan Williams and/or (b) a more tough, physical force at ILB next to Daryl Washington (the Kuechely guy out of Boston College has grabbed our attention).

We lost invaluable swing CB/S Richard Marshall to free agency, but figure to get back starting CB Greg Toler who, if he comes back 100% healthy, still figures to be an upgrade opposite PP21. At some point we'll need an Adrian Wilson clone to backup and eventually replace A-Dub's imposing physical presence, but it isn't a priority quite yet.

It will take years (if ever) for me to get the bitter taste of Operation Wheelspin out of my mouth, but one way to speed the process would be for the Cardinals to take the necessary steps to be a contender again and, hopefully, a Super Bowl winner.

Ciao.

Over! Cards Out of Running for Manning - Fri. March 16, 2012 - With about one-hour left before the Kolb bonus deadline, ESPN (Schefter) reported that, not only were the Cards notified they were out of the running but that the Niners had jumped into the pool and had actually worked out Peyton Manning in NC Tuesday. Cute. See rant below.

The Stench of Pro Football
This whole Peyton Manning fiasco has left a sour taste in my mouth - partly because we didn't get him, but there are bigger more important reasons. I guess what really irks me was the way the Mannings, the League, the media and the various teams set up false expectations. Like other fans, I was led to believe that this would be a fair, transparant process with a small number of selected teams contending on a level playing field for Mannings services. Each of three teams (Cards, Broncs and Dolphs) would get a half-day to meet with Peyton, but there'd be no contract talks, physicals, workouts etc. The structure of the negotiations would be methodical, involving a winnowing-down process until one team was selected. And may the best team win. Or so we were led to believe.

Instead, Tennessee jumped into the fray late with Bud ("You're the Only Man I Want") Adams and his management team jetting into Durham for meetings and a physical. Then today, the Broncos sent a contingent to Durham from Denver for a workout and medical exam. Meanwhile no news from the Cardinals. NFLN's Michelle Beisner quietly vanished for the duration from the Cardinal presser background set and Cardinal fans were left with no news one way or another as to whether we were still in the hunt and left to wonder, "If we're not attending workouts, why haven't we announced that we're out of the running?" Finally, with about 1:15 left on the clock (before the decision deadline on Kolb's $7-mil roster bonus, ESPN's Adam Schefter drops the bomb that the Mannings had told the Cards they were done. But he then dropped an even bigger and more explosive bomb - that the Niners were now in the hunt and, furthermore, that they had worked out and examined Manning on Tuesday.

So much for level competition and transparancy - we have surprise teams dropping in for visits at the 11th hour, physicals and workouts being scheduled for some teams but not for others, promises of lifetime employment and considerable murkiness about which teams were still in the running and which ones were out.

The Mannings could have been more forthcoming about the ground rules (If there were none, trhey could have let us fans know that so that we wouldn't waste our time. And, if they weren't ruling out any last-minute surprise offers, they should have told us that also). The Cardinals could have been more forthcoming about how they might handle the Kolb situation and what their status was going into today. And the League fosters an environment where garish ownership-behavior bording on the "carney" is SOP.

I must admit that, this whole Manning mess has made me have second thoughts about continuing the Red Sheet to support an enterprise which has become commercialized right up to its bippy. Think about it - each time you buy a jersey with a player's name on it and that player gets traded, whoop-de-doo! You have to go out and buy a new, more up-to-date jersey. And how about the way the media covered the Manning story - if negotiations were quick, efficient and slam-dunk, there'd be one less big "Brett Favre" or "Michael Vick" sized story from which to hype, sustain an audience and sell ad space. Pro football is just a huge money machine, and the way the Manning thing is being handled, it frankly makes following football less fun and more of a chore.

I think my growing outrage started a couple of decades ago with the nearby PNC Arts Center. Back in the day (when it was called the Garden State Arts Center) you could bring a couple of lawn chairs, sit back under the stars and listen to Miles,Randy Newman, James Taylor or Steven Wright. Then one evening we showed up only to find that its bucolic peacefulness had been overtaken by blinking lights and gaudy sponsorship signs. You couldn't even sit on the lawn anymore. We left and never looked back.

Football is a beautiful sport - when the focus is on aspects of the game itself - but pro football is losing its beauty. Oh I'll probably continue writing the Red Sheet and following the Cardinals (old habits die hard). But my efforts will always be dragged down by my newfound understanding that we fans are being played in an arena that is neither transparent nor fair. End of rant (for now). We have the Manning fiasco to thank for that.

"D Day" Upon Us - Fri. March 16, 2012 - It's 11:01 am ET; 5-hours til "fish or cut bait" time with Kolb's bonus. Latest buzz out of Denver has the Bronco owner's jet scheduled to fly to North Carolina. Most Cardinal fans are throwing in the towel. I'm not so sure. Less than a day ago, it looked as though Bud ("Mr. Lifetime") Adams had zoomed in with an offer Peyton would find hard to refuse. Now Pat Bowlen's jet.

I'll admit it doesn't look promising, but there are still plenty of possible scenarios:

Bowlen could be flying in to sign a deal.

Or he could be flying in to one-up Adams.

The Broncos could be flying in to watch Peyton work out.

The teams still in the hunt are all gathering at the same time to move on to Phase 2 (money, terms etc.)

(Minor Update: ESPN (Mort) is confirming that Denver is flying in to watch Peyton work out. Schefter points out that watching a workout doesn't guarantee he's going to Denver or any other team. It is unclear whether Tennessee, Arizona or Miami will also attend the workout. But most of the national media and their league sources - who have been wrong more often than not - are speculating that the Cards are out of the hunt).

I also think there may be a way for the Cardinals to manouver their way around the 4 pm ET Kolb deadline. What's to prevent them from working out an informal side-agreement with the Mannings to defer Year One money to minimize the impact of the $7-mil cap squeeze Kolb's bonus would create. Peyton and his family aren't destitute - they probably don't need the money right away and might actually be better off tax-wise deferring as much guaranteed money into Years 2, 3, 4, 5 or later. A verbal agreement (saying - "if the two parties want to do a deal, we're amenable to moving compensation out of Year One") would then set the stage for the Cards to pay Kolb his bonus, thereby eliminating the time pressure on the Cardinals (& Peyton) of getting anything done by this afternoon.

Levi Still a Cardinal
Levi Brown and the Cardinals agreed to bring the LT back into the fold at reportedly far less money than his original signing bonus would call for. What's unclear is whether he's expected to play LT (a major problem with most Cardinal fans) or move to RT (where he'd be less likely to be abused by enemy pass rushers). Many fans are hoping we'll sign OL Demetrius Bell to become our starting LT. Bell was in for a looksee along with OG Jake Scott (didn't sign) and OG/OT Adam Snyder (did sign). An OL consisting of Bell - Colledge - Sendlein - Snyder and L Brown would figure to be a significant upgrade over last year.

Free Agency Heats Up (Manning Countdown Nears End) -- Thurs. March 15, 2012 -- This is a tense time of year, because of (a) Free Agency, (b) the upcoming Draft and (c) Tax Time - Each year I set an arbitrary deadline of getting my returns to my accountant before St. Paddy's Day. (Woo hoo! Worksheets are done & being overnighted even as we speak. - with 2 days to spare)! Now I can focus on important things - like the Cardinals, free agency and the draft.

Let's review the bidding covering the past week. It started out with Dan Snyder trading away 3 years' worth of 1st round picks to StL for their 1st round pick and the opportunity to draft QB pheenom, Robert Griffin III (That sure got our attention). Then Peyton Manning wound up on the auction block. And the cry "Gentlemen Start Your Engines" commenced just three days ago, with SF and the Skins and Niners seeming to corner the market in receivers and Tampa Bay securing a top FA in three different position categories. Which brings us to the Cardinals:

Manning
Let's just say that "I'll never get back the week I lost." It started with Peyton visiting Colorado and Arizona to spend a half-dozen hours apiece with the Broncs and us. (In both cases, Peyton left without signing - an ominous sign, since the Cardinals have a track record of bolo'ing when they don't sign the dude when he gets there). Miami was added to the list of suitors with the Titans joining the club as Johnny Come Latelies. Ancient Tennessee owner Bud Adams added spice to the stew by flying him from NC to Nashville, spending at least 6½ hours with him (including a 1½ hour session with the medics) and making him an offer to "remain a Titan for life."

Peyton is back in Carolina (unless he snuck out to other parts unknown). Meanwhile the Cards have til 4 pm ET tomorrow before they have to decide whether or not to cut Kevin Kolb or pay him a 7-million dollar signing bonus, so they'll need an answer from Peyton inside of 27 hours. (That's not a lot of time to get a deal done).

Time is not on our side, but we're still hanging in there. The media has cooled on our chances, but you just never know.

Free Agency
Cards released Levi Brown (who could return for less cash, but it's unlikely) and lost CB-S Richard Marshall to Miami. They also signed OG/OT swingman from SF, Adam Snyder. The return of a healthy Greg Toler could take much of the sting out of losing Marshall. Snyder is of a younger clone of Jeremy Bridges. His presence will help strengthen us at guard and provide a temporary stopgap to buy time while we continue our search to replace Brown and Keith at both tackle spots - either in free agency or the draft.

"Crazy Time" (Manning and Free Agency) -- Sat. March 10, 2012 -- Who would have thunk the Cardinals would be in the thick of news, information, disinformation etc. over the possibility of landing the (when healthy) World's Best QB. After all, we already spent a gazillion dollars a year ago on Kevin Kolb and, in Skelton and Bartell already have our cupboard well-stocked with young QB talent. And since when have the Cardinals ever been considered a big player and heavy hitter in anything really big in the NFL? Yet the news continues to point in the direction of the Cardinals vs. Miami vs. Denver (and perhaps vs. KC and Seattle). Peyton is due in the Valley perhaps as early as today, and we're beginning to pick up reports of billboards, limos and helicopters (oh my)! It's enough to make you want to bite your lips off. Despite all the hype, I give the Cards a 20% shot at signing Manning and will try like the blazes to push it deep beneath my emotional radar screen.

Then there's the saga of Dan Snyder, RG3 and the StL Rams - Three ones and this year's #2: are you kidding me? (Thank goodness all the Rams pick up this year in exchange for dropping to #6 is Washington's #38 pick in the second round). What a heist! My biggest problem with the deal isn't so much that RG3 isn't worth it all (well...actually it sort of is) but that it puts the Redskins one injury away from franchise disaster. (Football, of course, is still a team sport and we should never forget it).

Meanwhile the Cards are busy tendering "the belly of their roster" while trying to sort out what to do with Kevin Kolb and Levi Brown within the context of "Where's Peyton?" Cap rumors and misinformation is flying around like Frisbees on a warm Spring day. So many things can break in so many different directions that we'd be well-advised to take a deep breath, not get emotionally drawn to any one scenario and "let events come to us."

And then there's the Draft. The Combine is over, with Pro Days in progress to fill in some of the missing holes. Given the uncertainty at QB and with the cap, I've been reluctant to come close to attempting a seven round mock, but the various Draft magazines have hit the newstands and I feel I can at least lay out a plausible scenario. I'll start out by observing that (1) the draft is deep in WR's and DT's and thin in TE's and pass rushers. After the top three or four prospects (Luck, RG3, Kalil and arguably Richardson), there's a slight dropoff, but the Red Chip talent plateau might extend as deep as into the mid to late 2nd round. This could, therefore, set the stage for an attempt by the Cardinals to trade down to regain the 2nd round pick we lost in the Kolb trade. That said (& using the NFL Draft Guide board & not waiting for the supplemental picks to be announced), here's how I think the Cardinal draft might look like:

1 (13) Jonathon Martin OT Stanford
2 (45) (No pick)
3 (77) Joe Adams or Jarious Wright WRs Arkansas, Janzen Jackson DB McNeese or Amini Silatalu, G Midwestern St
4 (109) Senio Kelemete G Wisconsin
5 (141) Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
6 (173) Bruce Irvin OLB WVa
7 (205) Travis Benjamine WR "The U"

Bottom line, We don't help ourselves enough. I hope we regain our lost pick in the 2nd round.

Cards Fill Out Coaching Staff - Wed. Feb. 8, 2012 - In a position switcheroo, the Cardinals (as predicted) made WR Coach John McNulty their QB coach and hired former Bills QB Frank Reich to coach the receivers. Those of you Peyton Manning conspiracy theorists should find it interesting that Reich coached the Colt quarterbacks in 2009 and 2010 before becoming receivers coach in 2011. He was then caught up in the overhaul of the Colt coaching staff and released a month or so ago.

Combine Next Up - We were able to get our grubby little hands on the Combine Invitee List. Bon Appetit!

Congratulations, World Champion Giants - Mon. Feb. 6, 2012 - They were down to the final few minutes of the game with the Pats up by 2, when I reassured my son Dan (a Giant rooter) that the Giants "had it in the bag." My reasoning: (1) Eli Manning's track record for pulling close games out of his butt in the final seconds and (2) the whole "team of destiny" deal that has accompanied the Giants at least as far back when Jeff Hostetler came back from being down by 19 in the 4Q to beat the Cardinals at Giant Stadium. I am not a happy camper - Patriot receivers dropped four straight catchable Tom Brady passes during the final one or two NE possession and, true to form, Manningham made a miraculous (Tyree-caliber) catch down the left sideline to set up the Giant win. Yippee. Now those of us who live in the NYC media market get to spend the next 12 months suffering through the local NYC blitz of adoration. But that's show biz. Giant players made just about every key play they had to. New England players did pretty much the opposite. Congratulations! (dang it)!

Well just 7 months until next season starts. And remember - you can watch every Cardinals game with the NFL Sunday Ticket on DIRECT TV

Surprise ! Celeb a Card Rooter - Fri. Feb. 3, 2012 - How many times do you hear a celebrity on a talk show admit to rooting for the Giants or the Pats or Team Felon, Steelers, Saints or Pack - but never the Cardinals...ever! Answer: Always! (Until now). Last night Jay Leno asked guest country music star, Blake Shelton who we was rooting for in Sunday's Super Bowl, and his answer ran along the lines of: "Well I'm not rooting for either team/Actually, I root for the Arizona Cardinals. Now I'll admit to not being much of a country music fan (jazz, blues are my thing, with the closest I get is bluegrass). But I will keep an open mind and a warm spot in my heart for country-sensation and our new BFF, the One & Only Blake Shelton.

Speaking of the Super Bowl... - It figures to be an intriguing matchup that could go either way. Two Parcells-disciples with somewhat different strategic philosophies. The Giants under Coughlin are a physically tough conservative team that plays you close, takes a few shots and waits for a few big breaks to capitalize on. The Pats under Belicheck stresses speed, execution and uncovering/exploiting favorable matchups. I confess to rooting for New England if for no other reason than to get the Giants off the sports pages of the NYC tabloids at the expense of other NFL teams (like the Cardinals). I like the Giant organization and their fans (because they're far humbler than the Cowboys, Jets etc.). Unfortunately, the same doesn't apply to the local press. So....Go Pats!

It's Already Senior Bowl Time - Thurs. Jan. 26, 2012 - Man! Time flies. I've barely had time to get over SF's upset over the Saints and the Giants' dismemberment of the Packers and win over the Niners. (A word about the Giants - every two or three seasons, they seem to rise out of the ashes to become a "team of destiny." The breaks just seem to magically fall their way in big games. I'll concede that they've been smart enough to have the right guys on the field to capitalize on those breaks, but, yikes! Two late-game special team fumbles by a fumble-free team? Wow!

Back to Saturday's Senior Bowl and the 2012 Draft season. (Check out Rosters and Player Comments). A few preliminary observations:

Watching the ebb and flow of NFL winners and losers over the year, one thing finally struck me - There are an awfully large number of stars on successful NFL teams whom "we've never heard of." This in spite of all the research done by the media gurus and obsessed draft-followers each Spring. I think this is due to better talent-evaluation and player development that enables teams to (a) identify below-the-radar players with huge upsides, (b) project what kind of contribution they'd make when motivated and coached-up and (c) place bets on their future successes.

Makes me wonder whether, in the end, all the Draft hoopla is really worth it. Subtantive Answer: "Probably not." Emotional Answer: "Sure" (because it's fun). But when we get into esoteric discussions about one guy having a ½" higher vertical jump than the next guy or whether a QB's release point is a gazillionth of a percent lower than the ideal or why a 245 lb RB "only runs a 4.55", my word of caution is: "Get real."

After all, the Draft process is one of "probabilities" than it is "definites." All a team can do is play the percentages in the hope that the numbers will work in its favor over a period of time. This is not to say that there isn't a degree of luck and "GM magic" that can drastically alter a team's roster and catapault it from also-ran to contender; but usually those genius GM's who try to short-cut the system tend to enjoy their few years in the sun before gradually sinking into oblivion. (I keep thinking about how selecting Peyton Manning (and appropriately paying him a fortune) made Bill Pollian a "genius", but when injury forced Peyton to sit, the Colts were stuck with a barren roster. And suddenly, Polian is no longer a genius but instead "a former Colt GM.").

So going into Draft season, I urge us all to remember a few guiding principles: (1) When they say a player's stock is rising or falling, it's not because the player has changed. but because a bunch of media gurus said so. (2) It's not always because some reporters and beat writersare so smart, but instead are really well plugged-into sources within their local team or teams. This doesn't make them bad people, but take the rumors they report for what they're worth - (i.e. what the teams want the public (& other teams to hear). (3) Early mock drafts are useless, because most teams rely on a variety of sources to restock their rosters (including free agency, trades and the draft) and also may have a few "inside-baseball" machinations going on to help them deal with budgets and cap-limits. Plus different teams have different approaches to evaluating players and don't even begin to stack their Draft Boards until after the Combine and, in some cases, Pro Days. Plus coaching and front-office changes often bring with them changes in personnel policy and approach to the Draft. (4) Trust your eyeballs - each year I'm always surprised by a handful of players who showed me something in "real" games but were never rated all that high.Yet they went on to be successful in the NFL. (Example: Devin McCourty of the Patriots). Don't let the experts talk you out of your own convictions

It's a good time right now to suck up information like a magnet about various players and maybe get a general sense of how these players might stack up overall or by position; but understand that a lot can (& will happen) as we move past the Senior Bowl into the Combine and then the Pro Days to the Draft itself.

By the time Draft Day rolls around, our respective boards will be a whole lot different from what they might look like today. And one or two years from now, there will once again be "a bunch of really good players out there we never heard of."

Happy New Year! (What to Expect in 2012) -- Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2012 -- I didn't blog practically at all last year. There were two main reasons: (1) I was preoccupied helping to care for our sick Mom (Gert) who was living with us and (2) The Cardinals' abysmal first-half start (complicated by Lockout's negative impact on familiarizing defensive players with Ray Horton's exotic new defense and bringing newcomer Kevin Kolb up to speed with his receivers and the Cardinal offensive system.

Looking forward: things look a bit less hectic looking ahead (both for me and the Cardinals). The rumored shake-up of the Cardinal offensive staff is now underway, with QB Chris Miller exiting the scene, giving credence to the rumor that former Cardinal OC Todd Haley may be heading back to the Cardinals.

Some minor personnel tweaking: Cards emptied their PS and IR and (without based on a little bit of guessing) signed the following players to Futures contracts C Ryan Bartholomew, CB Corey Lindsay, DL Ricky Lumpkin, RB William Powell, LB Quan Sturdivant, TE Steve Skelton and new acquirees G Chris Stewart, TE Martell Webb and LB Antonio Coleman.

Lots of end-of-season fan-buzz about the need to overhaul the offensive line (whose poor pass blocking almost got Skelton killed more than once and actually did cause Kolb's latest concussion). Despite what seemed to be a deep and talented group of Cardinal receivers, neither Early Doucet nor Andre Roberts proved to be as reliable opposite Fitz (i.e. too many catchable balls dropped; too many jump ball contests lost), Stuckey didn't accomplish much and was used sparingly and Steven Williams was all but invisible throughout the season. We do wind up the season with two QB's who - while not up to where we'd like them to be - are more familiar with the offensive system than they were entering the year and, in John Skelton's case, got a ton of solid experience taking plenty of snaps in varying game-conditions. Beanie Wells was beginning to earn his street-creds as a solid feature RB until his knee injury impeded his progress (but he continued to plug ahead anyway). Next year, Ryan Williams should be available to provide Beanie with quality depth and home-run potential. LSH, Chester Taylor and Alfonso Smith are good at what they do in backup or specialty roles.

Charley Casserly caught our attention before the Steeler - Bronco game Saturday when he speculated that the perfect place for Peyton Manning to land (should the Colts, as stated, draft Andrew Luck) would be the Cardinals. First thing that struck me - that Casserly (who had been a savvy personnel dude before becoming a TV commentator) even had any thoughts at all about the Cardinals (Depending on whether you consider this to be a good or bad thing, the Cardinals have been suffering from chronic Media Invisibility Syndrome throughout the history of the francise). The second thing that hit me was: "How in blazes would something like that work? The Colts are saddled with Manning's huge contract and cap hit. The Cards have at least one year of Kevin Kolb's giant contract to eat. It's unlikely that the two teams are saddled with parallel contract-details and would first have to convert Apples and Oranges to some common denominator (perhaps Euros?) in order to even start preliminary discussions.

Here's what I think - A Manning-for-Kolb straight up deal would seem to be in both teams' interests. The Colts would have the somewhat young Kolb to carry the team until (or if) Luck was ready. Keys central to a deal:

Manning's health (He has to be 100% OK. Cardinal docs will have to earn their keep).
Financial apples and oranges
Willingness of both teams to work on a deal (i.e. the complexity of this sort of a deal may be too much for the traditionally conservative Cardinals).

The trade would enable the Cardinals to allow Manning to mentor the promising Skelton. Both teams would have to compare(1) their compensation/cap situation if they did nothing with (2) their compensation/cap situation under a straight-up Manning for Kolb trade.

Quite possibly there might be inequities of the deal that would have to be worked out,. but figuring out the impact of the deal on 2012 compensation/cap would at least provide a framework and jumping off point for other adjustments that might have to do with payoffs, contract-lengths, additional players/picks etc.

The Draft - Here Before You Know It
It kind of sneaks up on you with the same suddenness Fitz gets on top of a cornerback. It can, therefore be very easy for fans to get caught up in the excitement and put a variety of carts before their horses. Mock drafts, for example, are useless so early in the process. So are exotic trade-up and down scenarios - there's still consider player-revaluating to be done - Late season injuries. Small college gems to uncover. Due-diligence on injured or high-maintenance players. Surprise underclassmen. The all star bowl games. The Combine. There's also the small matter of evaluating your own personnel, identifying position-needs and putting them in some sort of priority. And, oh yeah, there's this tiny matter of free agency (your own guys and outside guys you're interested in. (All against the backdrop of coaching changes and possible shifts in schemes, systems and strategies).

For the above reasons, no mock draft or trade fantasy is going to make sense without having all the aforementioned ducks in a row.

That said, the month of January can really be useful (by teams and fans) for collecting the basic information about who the key prospects are and CW about their strengths and weaknesses. The Bowl games are over, and, at the very least, hard core fans will have watched a bunch of them and have come away with a short list of "prospects they'd really like to have on their team."

Next up are the East-West Shrine Game and Senior Bowl. I've provided links here to the rosters. Info is still a bit incomplete (i.e. no jersey numbers and an "early" partial list of Senior Bowl participants, but I'll rework the roster pages as new info comes in. Enjoy your January.

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