2011 Regular Season
NINERS @ CARDINALS PREVIEW

Setup
Overview
Steelers' Last Game
Meet the Steelers
Cardinals Roster
Steelers vs. Cardinals Matchups

 Setup:
The Niners clinched last week, breezing to a 26 - 0 win over the Rams. They're now 10 & 2. The Cardinals clawed their way to 5 & 7, beating Dallas in OT 19 -13 for their 4th win in 5 games.

 Overview
The Niners won the first meeting between AZ and SF 23 - 7. John Skelton was the QB; the 7 points were kind of paltry. Based on one week old cumlative stats from PFF -  the Niners continue to "be what they are", with some overall improvement byQB Alex Smith and WR Michael Crabtree. Surprisingly, TE Vernon Davis and WR Ted Ginn are underperforming in key aspects of play as is the entire offensive line (with the exception of rookie Mike Iupati.

Justin Smith and Ray McDonald are excelling in all areas of defensive line play as are 5 LB's (Brooks, Willis, Bowman, Aldon Smith and Haralson. CB Carlos Rogers and S Daunte Whitner are solid in the secondary. CB Tarell Brown may be a bit suspect in pass coverage.

Their kicker (Akers) and punter (Lee) are having excellent seasons as is Ginn in the return game.

OFFENSE
They 're ranked middle of the pack overall and 10th in the run game (9th in run blocking). One Achlilles heel - pass pro (They rank #28). The Niner offense has improved to #22 in penalties committed. SF has multiple weapons - 3 home-run receivers, the fastest TE in football, a second receiving option at #2 TE, two RB's who can (a) run and (b) catch out of the backfield. If there's one potential Achilles heel, it would be the 49er offensive line, but considering the 10 & 2 won-loss record, this doesn't seem to be hurting them.

DEFENSE
Niners rank #1 overall; #3 vs. the run; 2nd in coverage and #2 rushing the passer. The only area where the defense descends to "middle of the pile" is on  penalties-taken. They have at least one playmaker at every level - Two superb inside LB's in Patrick Willis (whose hamstring may limit or precent his playing) and Navarro Bowman; but they have excellent depth at the position. RDT bookend Justin Smith has been playing lights-out and CB Carlos Rogers is making the Redskins sorry they traded him away.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Niner rank 3rd in special teams. Exceptional unit - two of the NFL's best in kicker Akers and punter Lee, and a home run hitter in Ted Ginn.

 Niners Last Game

Classic example of how a well-coached team playing tight, mistake-free football can lean on a less-talented opponent and quietly pile up point after point until they've built a 26 - 0 winning margin. True, SF did take a couple of shots, - scoring on a couple of long completions to Crabtree and K Williams, but they didn't "go totally cowboy" - preferring instead to play close-to-the-vest football, capitalize on a few StL miscues and take care of business. Only downer was a hamstring injury to Patric Willis (not that it made any difference Sunday).

First Quarter

• Niners returned KO to their own 27 and managed to pick up one first down, moving to their own 39. Drive stalled; Lee punted 61 yards for a touchback. Rams (with Feeley subbing for Bradford) were held to 3 & out. Punt went O-O-B at the 49er 36. They got to the Ram 18 in 9 plays, but had to settle for a 36-yard Akers FG. Longest plays during the drive were for +10 and +11 yards.  49ers 3 - Rams 0.

• Touchback on the  KO. Rams madee it to midfield on completions to Pettis (+12) and and B Miller (+18). Willis hurt hamstring and left game. Drive stalled at the Niner 45. Punt was fair caught at the SF 13. An encroachment flag on 3rd & 1 gave Niners a 1st down at thei 27 to end the quarter.   1st Quarter Score: 49ers 3 - Rams 0.

Second Quarter

• After Smith hit Crabtree for +15, Smith was sacked for minus-8 to derail the Niner drive. Lee's punt was fair caught at the Ram 13. On the 3rd play from scrimmage, Feeley was sacked by MacDonaldand fumbled.Aldon Smith recovered. Niners ball on the Ram 6. But they couldn't punch it in and settled for an Akers 19-yarder. 49ers 6 - Rams 0.

• Touchback on the KO. After picking up +17 on a pass to Pettis, a chop-block flag derailed the Rams once again. Their punt from the 26 was fair caught by Ginn at the SF 35. Time til halftime: 5:33. The Niners used 10 plays and ate up 3:40 worth of clock time before stalling at the St 10 and settling for Akers' 3rd FG (a 28-yarder). 49ers 9 - Rams 0.

• 1:41 on the clock. Niners used up 4 plays before punting. (Key defensive play was a n 8-yard sack by L Grant). 32 yard Punt went O-O-B at the Niner 43 with 0:57 still on the clock. Three offensive penalties and an 8-yard sack of Smith pretty much closed out the quarter. First Half Score: 49ers 9 - Rams 0.

Third Quarter

• Rams returned the KO to their own 18. On the fourth play of their possession, Feeley's pass was intercepted by Goldson. Ninerstook over on their own 12. Afterthree consecutive runs around end for +6, +16 and +14, Smith hit Crabtree for a 52-yard TD.  49ers 16 - Rams 0.

• Rams returned the KO to their own 23 and went 3 & out. Ginn returned it and went out of bounds at the SF 37. The Niners managed to drive to the Ram 9 before Hunter was  nailed in the backfield and the Niners settled for another Akers FG (this one from 34).  49ers 19 - Rams 0.

• Touchback on the KO followed by another Ram 3 & out. Punt was returned to the Niner 33. Another sack of Smith forced SF to punt from their own 47. Fair caught at the Ram 18. StL moved to their own 27 to end the quarter. Third Quarter Score: 49ers 19 - Rams 0.

Fourth Quarter

• StL completed another 3 & out and punted. Returned 11 yards by Ginn to the Niner 40. Three plays later, Smith hitK Williams for a 56-yard TD. 49ers 26 - Rams 0.

• That ended the scoring. Niners had an 11 play drive that ended in another sack - this one by Aldon Smith. Kaepernick in. Three & out. Ram ball near midfield. 3 & out. Niners took over at their own 20 and ran out the clock in four plays. Final Score:  49ers 26 - Rams 0.

Meaningful Game Stats

• SF held the Rams to 31 net yards rushing.

• They sacked Feeley 4 times and recovered one fumble.

• They held Feeley to 12 for 22, 156 yards, one interception and no TD's.

• Meanwhile Alex Smith completed 17 for 23, 274 yards, no picks and 2 TD's.

• He was sacked four times.

• Niners ran the 34 times and passed just 29.

• They averaged 6.2 yards gained per offensive play.

• Frank Gore gained 73 yards on 21 carries.

• Vern Davis led all Niner receivers with 5 receptions followed by Crabtree and Ginn with 4 apiece.

• Akers was a FG machine with 4.

• Net punting average by Lee was 37.2 (which closely matched Jones' net average on the other side.

• Niners dominated time-of-position 36:05 to 23:55.

• Niners were penalized 8 times (vs. StL's 5)

 Meet the Niners
A well-coached team that plays efficient football by getting the most out of varying levels of talent throughout its roster

   Quarterbacks
11 Smith, Alex QB 6-4 217 27 7 Utah
07 Kaepernick, Colin QB 6-4 230 24 R Nevada
03 Tolzien, Scott QB 6-3 205 24 R Wisconsin

Evaluation
Smith is playing with more and more confidence as the season progresses. He still gets sacked an awful lot though. Harbaugh stuck with Smith, and his move paid off with more poise and better production. Harbaugh refers to Smith as "a good manager of the game." While on the surface, this might seem like a backhanded compliment,  this is precisely the role Smith evidently has been asked to play and he is doing it quite well.

PFF rates Smith #8 QB overall. He has an 13 to5 TD to Interception ratio and has completed 62.4% of his passes for a rating of 91.2 (9th best). He has been sacked 30 times (4th highest in the NFL)

 Running Backs

21 Gore, Frank RB 5-9 217 28 7 Miami (Fla.)
32 Hunter, Kendall RB 5-7 199 23 R Oklahoma St.
24 Dixon, Anthony RB 6-1 233 24 2 Mississippi State
49 Miller, Bruce FB 6-2 248 24 R Central Florida
44 Norris, Moran FB 6-1 250 33 11 Kansas

Evaluation
Gore has to be considered among the top 3 - 5 inside runners in the NFL (though his overall PFF ranking is #43 in the NFL). If he has one deficiency, it's as a receiver - he ranks only one ahead of Beanie Wells in the race for dead last among NFL running backs).  Durability has been an issue, though, but when Gore is out or needs a blow, Rookie Hunter has stepped up admirably.

 Wide Receivers

15 Crabtree, Michael WR 6-1 214 24 3 Texas Tech
10 Williams, Kyle WR 5-10 186 23 2 Arizona State
18 Swain, Brett WR 6-0 200 26 3 San Diego State
17 Edwards, Braylon WR 6-3 214 28 7 Michigan
19 Ginn Jr., Ted WR 5-11 180 26 5 Ohio State

Evaluation
Edwards has been a solid addition. Crabtree and Ginn appear to have shed part of their Diva identity and are buying into Harbaugh's way of doing things - improving with each week.  Morgan joined Crabtree in having good overall stats, but he's absent from the roster and must be injured. Crabtree has an overall rating of  +2.7 (#29 among 117  receivers. Keep an eye on Kyle Williams (who had a monster game last week).

Tight Ends
85 Davis, Vernon TE 6-3 250 27 6 Maryland
46 Walker, Delanie TE 6-0 242 27 6 Central Missouri
81 Peelle, Justin TE 6-4 251 32 10 Oregon
86 Jennings, Brian TE/LS 6-5 242 35 12 Arizona State

Evaluation
Davis is one of the fastest TE's in all of football and presents matchup problems for any secondary he goes up against; yet his overall ranking is 51st out of 58 TE's. His negative ratings are across the board (receiving, run blocking and pass blocking). He is in the positive category for penalties-committed, however. Given his reputation, I'm not sure why this is so. Walker has emerged as a solid threat and is ranked #16 overall (with good ratings across most categories.

Evaluation
Terrific unit. Smith ranks #8 among all OLB's overall. Brooks ranks 11th of 30. Haralson 18th. The two ILB's are as good as it gets. Willis tis the highest ratedt LB in pro football and most judges of talent will back this up; however, he left the Ram game early with a hamstring injury and may be limited or out for Sunday. Bowman is rated the 6th best ILB in the pros.

DE - 93 Campbell, 98 Eason
NT - 92 D Williams, 79 Carter
DT - 90 Dockett, 91 Holliday
Campbell continues to play at a dominating level and Dockett is right behind them.  With Williams out, both Carter and  Williams have picked up the slack - Carter's added additional bulk (he's now at or above 300 lbs - his original rookie playing weight was listed at something like 279). Holiday continues to provide veteran leadership and backup stability.

WLB - 50 Schofield, 55 Porter,
ILB  51 Lenon, 52 Bradley
ILB- 558 D Washington, 56 Walker,
SLB -  94 Acho, 53 Haggans,
Washington, Acho and Schofield had strong games vs. the Eagles as did Lenon. Some onlookers feel Washington is our best defensive player. Many of us are still waiting for Bradley to make his presence felt.

Schofield and Acho continue to get increased playing time, with Haggans and the banged up Porter seeing less. The moves are paying off - both in sack and tackles-in-the-backfield production and an overall boost in energy late in games. Washington is usually our #1 tackler from game to game and arguably  out best defensive player. Lenon has made some impressive plays of late, but will occasionally lose focus and give up a big one. We're seeing more and more of Bradley of late (especially in coverage).

RCB - 21 Peterson, 31 Marshall
LCB- 20 Jefferson, 27 Adams, 32 Lindsay   
SS-  24 Wilson,   41 Abdullah, 40 Tillman
FS-49 Rash Johnson, 37 Celestine,  25 Rhodes,  
There were 2 instances last week where Peterson turned & went with his man on deep patterns and looked back at the last second to track and play the ball. It's the one remaining aspect of his game that he needed to move his game into the elite category - and it looks like he's just about there.

Marshall (who most consider to be "big on hits but slow of foot") showed surprising speed running down (either Bryant or Felix Jones) on a long Dallas return. He and Jefferson continue to share corner and nickel responsibility depending on the game situation (or Jefferson's confidence). Meanwhile, Jefferson continues to be close to the lead in tackles each week.

A-Dub continues to overcome his earlier injury and do more and more each week. Johnson has admirably ffilled in for the injured Kerry Rhodes (who may return to action sooner not later) but lacks Kerry's playmaking dazzle. Adams continues to make key stops both in the secondary and on special teams.

K-04 Feely
P-  09 Zastudil
H - 09 Zastudil
LS- 82 Leach
KR - 37Stephens-Howling, 20 Jefferson
PR - 21 Peterson
Feely came back from an awful game vs. Philly to (among other things) kick a couple vs. Dallas. Zastudil's long distance punting was a godsend in repeatedly getting us out of "field position hell" vs. Dallas. Peterson (4 TD's on punt returns) has now reached a point where opposing ST coordinators have to account for him every time their team is forced to punt.

  Niners - Cards Matchups 
Roster-wise, the Niners are solid across the board. But even more impressive than their personnel is the way their head coach has built that roster into a sound, well-coached team that seldom beats themselves. Oh, they'll take a few risks, but they'll do so selectively and surgically. A typical Niner game is characterized by a balanced run/pass ratio,a positive turnover/takeaway ratio, two or three big plays and a low point total with (excepting 2 games) SF on the winning end. They do have a couple of vulnerable areas (most notably pass pro and penalties) and I truly believe we can beat these guys - but only if we bring our "A" Game physically and mentally and (something we haven't done thus far this season) play mistake-free football.

Note - the Niners having clinched provides other areas of uncertainty: While Harbaugh will certainly want to maximize his number of home-field-advantage opportunities, he'll have little to lose if he decides to "go radical" and take a few more risks - i.e. more Wildcat, more reverses/flanker arounds, cover-zero blitz packages, more deep throws or even running the ball 10 straight times. So Wiz, Miller and Horton and their charges had better be on their toes all the time.

 49er Passing Attack vs. Cardinal Pass Defense
Alex Smith is playing better and better and with more confidence as the season progresses. Smith and his current receivers Crabtree, Braylon Edwards and Kyle Williams (Morgan is injured) are now all on the same page. Statistically, Vernon Davis and Gore aren't delivering on their potential as receivers, but if we take them lightly, we do so at our peril. Smith's O-line still has trouble protecting him (giving up 30 sacks thus far). A favorite Smith tactic is to roll out off play-action to his right - outside contain - and hit open receivers who break their patterns to help out their QB.

The Cardinals have, of late, done a good job of containing QB's who roll out (Vick for one; Romo the most recent). Even when their front line of defense gets sucked in, they're very good at having a CB come out of nowhere to get in the QB's face.

Best (maybe the only) Cardinal-favoring matchup of the day features their pass rushers (Calais, Darnell, Acho and Schohawk) going up against a somewhat shaky 49er offensive line. The better the pressure, the better our DB's figure to do covering the various weapons in the Niner receiving arsenal. Peterson is beginning to flesh out the assortment of skills he needs to be a compleat corner. Jefferson (fast and physical, but raw) and Marshall (slower and physical but experienced) share the corner opposite PP21 and have been doing better and better each week. The three are backed up by Michael Adams. That should be enough to rein in the Niner receivers, allowing guys like A-Dub and Bradley to account for Davis and Gore and our other backers (i.e. DWash, Acho and Schofield) to guard their zones, protect their gaps and oopportunistically support the pass rush.

 49er Running Attack vs. Cardinal Run Defense
Gore remains a load to bring down and a force that cannot be ignored. At his least productive, he figures to wind up with 60-80 yards a game. But the Niners have enough other offensive weapons to de-emphasize Gore should he be "overcovered" or banged up. I'll repeat what I said prior to the first game vs. SF: "We know how to stop big physical runners like Stephen Jackson or Gore or DeMarco Murray (but we don't always do it). This week, we'd better do it. And don't take Hunter lightly - if he's needed, he can bring it.

In addition to such factors as cohesive unit play, our NT's (sans injured Dan Williams) will have to hold up against the Niner inside running game. In recent weeks, both Carter and Eason have proved up to the task.

 Cardinal Passing Attack vs. 49er Pass Defense
Kolb returned to help beat the Felons last week. Although he was rusty the first half of the game, he did look sharper in the 2H, twice leading his offense deep into the red zone (once for a FG; the other for a game-tying TD). What he brings to the table that represents an improvement over the less experienced Skelton is more consistent accuracy and a bit more composure dealing with extreme pass-rush pressure. (He seems to have a better handle on where his receivers are when he's forced to either unload or eat the ball). In fact, if there was one single most frustrating aspect of his play, it was Kolb's tendency to hang onto the ball too long instead of chucking it into the nickel seats. Yet, when all was said & done, Kevin threw zero picks last week (& a case could be made that this was the tiny edge we needed to somehow pull out a win).

The 49er pass rush (led by their DE's Smith and McDonald, OLB's Haralson and Brooks and ILB's Willis and Bowman is outstanding. While Kolb may want to take a lot of vertical shots downfield, this may not be his week for doing so - he might be better suited to establishing a short rhythm and only going deep as a diversionary tactic to loosen up the Niner defense and keep CB's Carlos Rogers and Tarrell Brown honest. (Note - If Willis' hamstring injury turns out to be serious enough, he may not play).

While Fitzgerald remains a constant factor as our # WR, many defenses attempt (with varying degrees of success) to take him away by such measures as double-bracketing the coverage on #11. This has made it absolutely paramount that another Cardinal receiver pick up the load (which we have attempted with varying degrees of success). Last week, the "hero" was Andre Roberts (6 grabs for 111 yards - almost all of those catches in clutch situations). WR "#2½" (Early Doucet) wore goats horns, dropping a perfectly -thrown ball that hit him in the chest at crunch time late in the Dallas game. Both receivers are capable of being solid #2's, but right now, Roberts represents the hot hand.

Last week, we got a lot of production from our non-WR receivers - the Howler out of the backfield (huge catch 2 weeks ago vs. StL and the game-winner in OT last week vs. Dallas). In Todd Heap's absence, his backup TE Housler was said to be open (& missed) two or three times last week. Heap will be back, but the key point is that Kolb has a lot of receiving options open to him. They'll be up against 2 quality safeties (Whitner and Goldson) but this might be the area the Card offense might want to work on.

Cardinal Running Attack vs. 49er  Run Defense
Given the right circumstances, Beanie Wells can be a productive feature-back, but part of this has depended on how good the opposing defense is and how they choose to play the run. Two weeks ago (against a suspect StL run defense, Wells gained 228 yards. Last week against a much better Dallas run defense - especially effective against sweeps in either direction - Beanie was unable to get outside and wound up gaining a gritty 67 yards.

The way I'd approach the run-game is within the context of a broad over -all approach which pits us "hat-on-hat" against the Niners in all offensive and defensive categories, keeps mistakes to a minimum and may the best guys win. All of which points to a balanced offensive attack with a 50-50 run/pass ratio - and relies on each player winning individual battles with their guys. (If we're really really good, maybe Beanie gains 150 - 200 yards. If we're not, maybe he gains something like 34).

Special Teams
49er kicker (Akers) and punter (Lee) continue to be at the top of their games and in matchups and usually give the Niners a significant edge. Ginn is a threat to take any ball he touches to the house. Jay Feely has looked better of late Zastudil is better punting our way out of poor field position, but not so hot dropping the ball inside t he other team's 15. Peterson is fast becoming a folk hero and, in OT vs. Dallas, we saw what LSH can do with the ball in the open field. Cardinal coverage teams are unsung factors in our two recent wins.

Coaching
Harbaugh figures to be a leading candidate for Coach of the Year. In less than a full season, he's transformed a mediocre team in a weak division into a playoff contender whose team is now mentioned in the same breath as the Packers and the Saints. His team is well-coached, plays close-to-the-vest, mistake free football, waits for your team to commit a miscue and then leaps on it opportunistically.

 Final Word  
WThe Niners are now playing for stuff like playoff home field advantage. The Cardinals are playing to run the table in order to have the remotest of shots at going 9 & 7 and somehow sneaking into the playoffs. What Harbaugh would like to do is make this game a conservatively-played war of attrition where mistakes, turnovers and field position determine the outcome of the game. The Cards will have to: (1) play sounder, more fundamental, mistake-free football than last time vs. SF, and also (2) "be aggressive" but not out-of-control). Kolb's presence gives us the potential for making fewer offensive mistakes than we did with the rawer but more athletic Skelton. Should be an interesting battle with the Niners having the definite edge on paper. (But we all know about "paper").