2011 Regular Season
CARDINALS @ NINERS PREVIEW

Setup
Overview
Steelers' Last Game
Meet the Steelers
Cardinals Roster
Steelers vs. Cardinals Matchups

 Setup:
When we've faced the Niners during the past decade, they've usually been dawgs - granted, dangerous underdogs in our division, but games we figured to win. This time, it's the Cards who are the dawgs.

The 8 & 1 Niners ended up on the winning end of a see-saw 27 - 20 contest vs. the Giants in SF. They are fast becoming heralded as one of the NFL's new darlings (& appear to have deserved it). They host the Cardinals at home this week. The Cardinals are coming off their second straight come-from-behind win - this one on the road in Philly. They've been forced to go with backup QB John Skelton (who's still learning how to play QB in the NFL but, as he does so, is playing just well enough to win). He seems to get better with each successive snap, but what remains to be seen is how far he still has to go playing behind a practically non-existent offensive line. Niners figure to be heavily favored at home; but so then were the Eagles (who were +13 over the Cards in Philly).

 Overview
They're 8 & 1 with no indication of slowing down. New HC Harbaugh inherited  a pretty good team on the rise and added enough stability and coaching maturity to change the 49ers from a contender on the rise to an established division leader. To paraphrase Ron Wolfley: "These guys play close-to-the-vest,  mistake-free football and then wait for you to make those key mistakes that will take you down.."

OFFENSE
Multiple weapons - 3 home-run receivers, the fastest TE in football, a second receiving option at #2 TE, two RB's who can (a) run and (b) catch out of the backfield. If there's one potential Achilles heel, it would be the 49er offensive line, but considering the 8 & 1 won-loss record, this doesn't seem to be hurting them. Statistically, the 49er offense does have a few vulnerable areas - they rank #28 in penalties-taken and #27 overall.

DEFENSE
Among all NFL defenses, the Niners rank #1 overall; #2 vs. the run; #1 rushing the passer and #3 in coverage. The only area where the defense descends to "average" is on  penalties-taken where they rank #14. They have at least one playmaker at every level - Two superb inside LB's in Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman; RDT bookend Justin Smith has been playing lights-out and CB Carlos Rogers is making the Redskins sorry they traded him away.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Niner special teams are the 4th highest rated in the NFL (Ron Wolfley claims they rank #1 in all 6 special teams categories - punting, kicking, punt coverage, KO coverage,punt returns and KO returns). Exceptional unit - two of the NFL's best in kicker Akers and punter Lee, and a home run hitter in Ted Ginn Jr.

 Niners Last Game

Seesaw game was decided by an onside kick, field position (dictated by a 12-yard net punting advantage and a couple of turnovers. It was that close.

First Quarter

• Giants received. Touchback. They managed to get to the Niner 5 and, on the 14th play of the drive had to settle for a FG. Giants 3 - 49ers 0.

• Next KO went for a touchback. Niners replicated the Giants first drive though getting no farther than the Giant 22 before Akers booted a 36-yarder. Giants 3 - 49ers 3.

• Touchback on the KO (again). Giants ran one running play to end the quarter.  1st Quarter Score: Giants 3 - 49ers 3.

Second Quarter

• Once again, the Giants drove deep into Niner territory, reaching the SF 7-yard line before settling for a 25-yard FG on the twelfth play of the drive. Giants 6 - 49ers 3.

• Touchback. SF tied it up again, reaching the Giant 34 in 6 plays (where significant penalties cancelled one another out). Akers was good from 52 yards. Giants 6 - 49ers 6.

• Harbaugh changed the equation of what appeared to be a back & forth defensive/dink & dunk standoff by dialing up an onside kick. It was recovered by the Niners' Walker on the SF 47. 5:00 left. Same offensive pattern as before - this time, the Niners drove to the Giant 21 where Akers hit from 39. (During the drive, Alex Smith demonstrated his resliancy by being sacked for minus-8 but scrambling for +12 on the very next play to set up the FG). Niners 9 - Giants 6.

• 1:49 left. A holding penalty on the Giants wiped out a decent KO return and gave them the ball on their own 22. Two plays later, Manning's pass intended for Cruz was intercepted by Rogers and returned to the Giant 47. SF reached the Giant 24, but Smith's pass intended for Ginn was picked off and returned to the Giant 22 where they ran out of time to end the half.  First Half Score: Niners 9 - Giants 6.

Third Quarter

• Niners received. Another touchback. Same pattern. They marched to the Giant 10 where the drive fizzled and Akers kicked a 28-yarder. Key plays of the drive: completions to Ginn (for +16) and Walker (for +14 and +19). Niners 12 - Giants 6.

• Touchback on the next KO. A minus-9 yard Willis sack helped SF hold the Giants to 3 & out. Punt was downed on the SF 35 and they also went 3 & out. Giants took over on their own 16. A 36-yard completion to Cruz helped set up a 13-yard touchdown pass from Manning to Manningham on the 10th play of the drive. Giants 13 - Niners 12.

• Ginn returned the KO to the SF 26 but a false start call on Iupati contributed to a SF 3 & out. A holding call on the punt return pinned the Giants back to their own 15, where they went 3 & out. Punt was out of bounds at midfield. Hunter picked up 6 yards to end the quarter. 3rd Quarter Score: Giants 13 - Niners 12.

Fourth Quarter

• Smith hit Vernon Davis at the Giant 25 and Davis rambled in from there for a 31-yard TD. Two point conversion (Smith to Crabtree) was good. Niners 20. Giants 13.

• Giants returned the KO to their own 11. Two plays later, Manning's deep pass over them middle was picked off by Carlos Rogers and returned to the Giants 17. On the first play from scrimmage, burstover left tackle for a 17-yard TD. Niners 27. Giants 13.

•  Touchback on the KO. 12:21 left. Giants moved to the Niner 32 in 6 plays before Manning hit Nix down the left sideline for a 32-yard score. Niners 27. Giants 20.

• Holding call on the KO moved SF back to its own 14 yd line. 8:28 left. Three & out. A holding call on the punt moved the Giants back from their own 30 to the 20 with 6:35 left. They managed to move all the way to the Niner 10-yard line where,on 4th & 10, Manning's final pass (with 0:34 left on the clock) was incomplete. Three knees/game over.   Final Score: Niners 27. Giants 20.

Meaningful Game Stats

• Alex Smith went 19 for 30 for  242 yards, 1 interception and 1 touchdown.

• Smith was sacked twice for minus-14 and gained 27 yards on 6 carries

• Frank Gore (who was injured) gained 0 yards on 6 carries. His replacement (Hunter) picked up 40 yards on 6 carries (17 of which were from one TD run).

• D Walker led Niner receivers with 6 grabs for 69 yards, Braylon Edwards, Vernon Davis and Ted Ginn Jr. each caught 3 passes.

• Akers went 4 for 4 in FG's (including a 52-yarder) and had one onside kick recovered by the Niners.

• Bowman (14), Willis (11) and Whitner (7) led the Niners in tackles.

• Giants led the Niners in 3rd down efficiency (50% to 27%) converting 7 of 14. They also converted 2 of 3 fourth down opportunities. (Niners went 0 for 0).

• Niners lost the time of possession battle 25:24 to 34:36.

• Niners had an incredible net punting average of 50.7 yards (vs. 38.5 for the Giants).

• The two teams were pretty much even-stephen on penalties and fumbles. Manning was picked off twice (Smith once).

 Meet the Niners
A well-coached team that plays efficient football by getting the most out of varying levels of talent throughout its roster

   Quarterbacks
11 Smith, Alex QB 6-4 217 27 7 Utah
07 Kaepernick, Colin QB 6-4 230 24 R Nevada
03 Tolzien, Scott QB 6-3 205 24 R Wisconsin

Evaluation
Harbaugh stuck with Smith, and his move paid off with more poise and better production. Harbaugh refers to Smith as "a good manager of the game." While on the surface, this might seem like a backhanded compliment,  this is precisely the role Smith evidently has been asked to play and he is doing it quite well.

PFF rates Smith #8 QB overall. He has an 11 to 3 TD to Interception ratio and has completed 64% of his passes.

 Running Backs

21 Gore, Frank RB 5-9 217 28 7 Miami (Fla.)
32 Hunter, Kendall RB 5-7 199 23 R Oklahoma St.
24 Dixon, Anthony RB 6-1 233 24 2 Mississippi State
49 Miller, Bruce FB 6-2 248 24 R Central Florida
44 Norris, Moran FB 6-1 250 33 11 Kansas

Evaluation
Gore has to be considered among the top 3 - 5 inside runners in the NFL (though his overall PFF ranking is #31 in the NFL). If he has one deficiency, it's as a receiver - he ranks dead last among NFL running backs).  Durability has been an issue, though, but when Gore is out or needs a blow, Rookie Hunter has stepped up admirably.

 Wide Receivers

15 Crabtree, Michael WR 6-1 214 24 3 Texas Tech
10 Williams, Kyle WR 5-10 186 23 2 Arizona State
18 Swain, Brett WR 6-0 200 26 3 San Diego State
17 Edwards, Braylon WR 6-3 214 28 7 Michigan
19 Ginn Jr., Ted WR 5-11 180 26 5 Ohio State

Evaluation
Edwards has been a solid addition. Crabtree has more than a little bit of the TO / Ochocinqo diva" in him as does Ginn; but all three (along with TE Davis) present enough of an explosive deep threat collectively to make the rest of an otherwise fairly conservative offense click. Statistically, this unit's production is kind of underwhelming (i.e. not to potential). Out of 115 wideouts in the NFL, Morgan ranks #32,  Crabtree ranks #64 and Ginn ranks #89.

Tight Ends
85 Davis, Vernon TE 6-3 250 27 6 Maryland
46 Walker, Delanie TE 6-0 242 27 6 Central Missouri
81 Peelle, Justin TE 6-4 251 32 10 Oregon
86 Jennings, Brian TE/LS 6-5 242 35 12 Arizona State

Evaluation
Davis is one of the fastest TE's in all of football and presents matchup problems for any secondary he goes up against. Walker has emerged as a solid threat (6 catches vs. the Gints to lead all Niner receivers). Walker is the NFL's 7th-ranked TE overall mostly on the strength of his run blocking. Davis ranks #37 out of 61 TE's - while clearly a dangerous receiver, his receiving stats are a bit off this year.

Evaluation
Terrific unit. The two ILB's are as good as it gets. Some consider Willis to be the best LB in pro football. All Bowman did last Sunday was rack up 14 tackles vs. the Giants. Aldon Smith was a high 1st round pick this past April. Willis is the top-ranked overall ILB in the NFL. Bowman is ranked #7and leads the defense in tackles with 83 (Willis is a close second with 70). Brooks is 2nd best NIner pass rusher with 36 QB sacks/hits/pressures. Aldon Smith is third with 30. He's 9th-ranked (out of 30) 3-4 OLB. Brooks is 11th-ranked OLB overall.

DE - 93 Campbell, 98 Eason
NT - 92 D Williams, 79 Carter
DT - 90 Dockett, 91 Holliday
Campbell had another beast-game vs.Philly (including an interception - amazing how, when you get your hands up, good things happen). Campbell and Dockett had huge games the week before that. Nothing especially notable about Williams in recent games. Carter had a solid game last week as did Holliday. Cards were tough against the run and did well playing under  "Vick Rules" (i.e. spies, gap-discipline, outside contain etc.).

Here again, the stats comfirm what our eyeballs tell us - Campbell and Dockett have positive ratings (Calais is #3 ranked DE out of 33 who play the 3-4. Darnell is ranked #8 overall, but both have slightly negative ratings vs. the run -ranked in a tie at #22). But as pass rushers, Campbell ranks #3 and Dockett #5. As a reward for keeping his hands up, the 6-8 Campbell is ranked tops by far among DE's in pass coverage.

WLB - 55 Porter, 50 Schofield
ILB  51 Lenon, 52 Bradley
ILB- 558 D Washington, 56 Walker,
SLB - 53 Haggans, 94 Acho
Washington, Acho and Schofield had strong games vs. the Eagles as did Lenon. Some onlookers feel Washington is our best defensive player. Many of us are still waiting for Bradley to make his presence felt.

It's amazing how the ratings mirror real life - out of 30 OLBs who play the 3-4, Joey Porter ranks dead last overall, Acho ranks #22 and Haggans #21 and Schofield #17. As pass rushers, Haggans is ranked #15, Schofield #17, Acho #18 and Porter dead-last. In coverage, Acho and Schohawk rank #6 and  #7 respectively;  Haggans ranks #9 and Porter #26. Defending against the run, Haggans and Acho rank 2nd and 3rd-to last at #28 and #29 respectively. Schofield is ranked #20 and Joey #15.

Inside, Daryl Washington is ranked #9 overall out of 47 ILB's who play the 3-4. Paris Lenon ranks 3rd to last overall. Lenon has negative ratings as a pass rusher and run stopper but is at least average in coverage. Washington has strong positive ratings across the board - pass rush, pass coverage and vs. the run.

RCB - 21 Peterson, 31 Marshall
LCB- 20 Jefferson, 27 Adams, 32 Lindsay   
SS-  24 Wilson,   41 Abdullah, 40 Tillman
FS-49 Rash Johnson, 37 Celestine,  25 Rhodes,  
Peterson continues to look better and better (& less and less like a rookie) as he masters new techniques. It was Jefferson who (still gets flagged for too many coverage miscues) looks better with each week and made the final interception that iced the Eagle game. Adams may not be a good every-play defender, but is a ferocious hitter who continues to be great in specific roles. Abdullah has been making his physical presence felt. Johnson (while not spectacular) has plugged a hole with Rhodes injured.

Out of 104 CB's, Marshall is ranked #99 overall; Peterson ranks #96 and Jefferson #73 (but what this doesn't reflect is our improvement at CB in recent games). Jefferson rates a solid positive vs. the run, but the other guys have negative ratings across the board. (One reassuring note - DRC has a #93 ranking).

Among 90 safeties - A-Dub enjoys a surprising #3 ranking (considering his injury and supporting cast) - he's #2 in coverage; and  #5 vs. the run. Rashad Johnson (subbing for Rhodes) is ranked #53 safety overall with notable vulnerability vs. the run.

K-04 Feely
P-  09 Zastudil
H - 09 Zastudil
LS- 82 Leach
KR - 37Stephens-Howling, 20 Jefferson
PR - 21 Peterson
Feely  had an awful game vs. Philly, missing two chip shots early in the game (It's a tribute to the rest of the team that we didn't fold up like a cheap tent right then and there).  Zastudil is OK but unremarkable. Peterson and LSH continue to be long range threats. Underrated have been the Cardinal coverage teams (Seldom do you see an opposing KO returner see anything north of 15 yards).

  Niners - Cards Matchups 
Like Philly, the matchups look very scary. The Niners keep racking up win after win, and Harbaugh has them playing solid and well-coached in all aspects of the game.

 49er Passing Attack vs. Cardinal Pass Defense
Alex Smith no longer is looking over his shoulder and, accordingly, has shed that deer-in-the-headlights style of play to become the heady, fairly athletic field general that many followers of his college career expected him to be. He'll get you yards improvising on the run. He can make all the necessary sideline throws or deliver when "going vertical."

His three top targets are all explosive "stretch the field" WR's in Braylon Edwards, Michael Crabtree and Ted Ginn Jr (the only knock on all three of these guys being that they don't handle adversity very well, don't always pay attention to detail and can act like divas under the wrong circumstances. But, hey! The Niners are winning. Everything's good.  And to top it off, the Niners also have WR-like TE Vernon Davis to throw to as well as #2 TE Delanie Walker (6 catches vs. Giants). And their RB's (Hunter and Gore), though not posting  great receiving numbers, aren't slouches catching out of the backfield either.

The multiplicity of 49er receiving threats will test the depth of the Cardinal back seven - expect to see a lot of Marshall, Adams and Abdullah helping out Peterson and Jefferson in the secondary.

Also expect to see DC Horton dial up a variety of odd looks and exotic blitzes in an attempt to rattle Alex Smith; but in doing so, we should act with extra caution/discipline  and not overextend or whiff on tackles because Smith has become seasoned enough to make us pay every time we neglect to maintain outside contain or gap-discipline ormiss a tackle one on one in the flat.

 49er Running Attack vs. Cardinal Run Defense
Hard to guage. If Gore is healthy, expect Harbaugh to challenge us physically early and often. We know how to stop big physical runners like Stephen Jackson or Gore (but we don't always do it). This week, we'd better do it. Last week Gore left the game with zero yards gained on 6 carries, but he's expected to play Sunday.If he can't go, don't take Hunter lightly - he can bring it. (His 17 yard TD vs.Philly turned out to be the game winner).

 Cardinal Passing Attack vs. 49er Pass Defense
Skelton is still missing open receivers and not making all his throws, but for every play he doesn't make, there's roughly 1.2 plays he is making, and it's been enough to win a couple of games. What we all hope for is that, with more and more game-experience, the mistakes will continue to come down and the number of big plays he makes will continue to go up. One promising aspect of Skelton's play: although he'll start off slowly, the more playing time he gets during a game, the more comfortable he looks and more effective he becomes (witness the two 80+ yard TD drives in the 2H last week).

Skelton seems to be more and more comfortable with all his receivers (not just Fitz - who had a dream-outing last week in Philly but Doucet and Roberts as well. And let's not forget about LSH on that wheel route late in the game).

Although Rogers had a huge game vs. the Giants, the Niner secondary doesn't look as scary as did the Eagles against us a week ago. On the flip side, however, is the 49er pass rush against our tissue paper guys.

Cardinal Running Attack vs. 49er  Run Defense
Cards continue to dial up a decent number of running plays (regardless of whether or not they work), but mostly to keep our opponents' pass rush honest. Beanie Wells (knee) has been relatively effective running north-south, but of late has been slow to the corner and unable to make sharp cutbacks. The hope is that, as Beanie's knee feels better, he'll return to those earlier days when opposing tacklers in the secondary did not look forward to dealing with him head on.

Special Teams
49er kicker (Akers) and punter (Lee) are at the top of their games and in matchups, usually give the Niners a significant edge. Ginn is a threat to take any ball he touches to the house. Jay Feely has been struggling recently (2 chips missed early in the game vs. Philly). Zastudil has been OK but isn't making fans go "Ahh!" Peterson and LSH are equally as dangerous on returns as Ginn. Cardinal coverage teams are unsung factors in our two recent wins.

Coaching
Harbaugh figures to be a leading candidate for Coach of the Year. Since coming aboard in the off-season, he's turned around a "team on the cum" to an established league leader far and away. And he's not doing it on the backs of one or two super stars - instead, he's got every SF roster unit playing sound, well-coached, relatively mistake-free football that takes advantage of field position and  turnover ratios to keep the wind perpetually at his team's back. Coach Wiz is facing arguably his toughest season as a HC under weird circumstances (i.e.a new QB, the Lockout etc.), but seems to be gradually righting the Cardinal ship.

 Final Word  
What Harbaugh would like to do is make this game a conservatively-played war of attrition where mistakes, turnovers and field position determine the outcome of the game. Therefore, the two (seemingly disparate) things we have to do is: (1) play sound, fundamental, mistake-free football, but also (2) take a few shots on both sides of the ball (i.e. be aggressive but don't play out-of-control). Watchword should be: "Cover our downside/not your backside. This figures to be another  "definition game" to determine how well we stack up against an 8 & 1 division leader.