2011 Draft
GOLLIN'S DRAFT BLOG

'Twas the Night Before... -- Holmdel, NJ  --  April 27, 2011 -- Well, here we are - 24 hours away from D-Day. The lockout is creating all kinds of havoc among the fans and media, but I'm not all that sure it's warranted. The CW coming out of ESPN and NFLNet is that, because teams can't make FA deals, the resulting roster-uncertainty will result in more teams drafting for "need."

I'm not sure I buy into this, because most rookies aren't ready to "plug 'n play" from Day One. With rare exception, most of the players drafted will need a year or two (or at least a half-season) to develop anyway. The way I see it is: If there's no free agency or trading, there's no season. And if there's no season, we won't have to fill open position-slots anyway since we won't be playing.

Unless the Cardinal FO feels Gabbert or Newton is as NFL-ready as Bradford was a year ago, we'd be better off going in another direction.

With one day to go, the top of most peoples' boards seems to have solidified, with Newton expected to go to Carolina and Dareus, Miller, Peterson and Green or Gabbert filling out the remaining 4 spots on most Top 5 draft boards. Quinn seems to have fallen. Some have Fairley in their Top 5; others have dropped him out of their top ten lists due to character questions.

Gabbert represents an intriguing prospect for the Cards to consider - most of the people close to the scene agree with me that the Cards will pass him up because he won't be NFL-ready from Day One nor a lock to be a franchise QBOF. But there are teams below us who may like Gabbert enough to be willing to trade up for him - specifically SF at #7 (though an unlikely trading partner because they're in our division), Tennessee at #8 and Washington at #10.

If Washington or Tennessee had their sights set on trading up to grab Gabbert (& assuming Newton, Miller, Dareus and Peterson were taken, the Cards could trade down from #5 to #8, with Tennessee taking Gabbert at #5; leaving 2 players from Fairley, Green, J Jones and Quinn still available to us at #8. Or, if we traded with the Skins, we'd be guaranteed to get either Fairley, Green, J Jones, Quinn, Amukamara or fast-rising OLB/DE Aldon Smith at #10. The question would have to be: Would getting the extra pick(s) be worth accepting a slight drop off in talent (if in fact there was a drop-off at all).

Fun thing to consider on Draft Eve. Tomorrow, I'll be tied up during most of the day leading up to 8pm but hope to be back in time to tweak my mock, enter the ASFN contest etc. My hope: We don't get cute and wind up with Miller.

 Update - One Week Out -- Holmdel, NJ  -- April 20, 2011 - Like the first cuckoo (no pun intended) of Spring, the release of the regular season schedule is a harbinger that let's you know Draft Day is near. This remaining week is when all the disinformation leaks out from all 32 team hqs. (Make that 31 - there has been nary a peep from the Chargers). Ingram's knee. Bower's knee. Quinn's and Fairley's one-year worth of experience. From a fan's outside view, it's well nigh impossible to separate fact from fiction, but you have to believe that business organizations making the kind of money NFL teams do have had their medics conduct intensive first-hand due-dligence on any player they're interested in. The Draft will reflect this.

In terms of players, the one single pattern I'm picking up is increasing buzz about second echelon QB's moving up the board into the first round. Names most frequently mentioned: Mallett, Locker and Dalton. It could be mainly smokescreen, but (to paraphrase F Scott Fitzgerald), "QB's are different from you and me."

Right now, most of the rumors filling the airways consist mostly of reporter-speculation and have very little to do with hard information coming from teams - so take most of it with a grain of salt. (Note - I broke that rule as recently as 30-minutes ago -  elevating Locker and Dalton into the 1st round in my latest mock - based mainly on hearsay).

A word about media mocks: Til now, most of them are malarky - fun to do, but mainly space -fillers while the writers mark time waiting for the "real" draft. That all starts to change right about now. Football beat writers aren't dumb - they know their reputations ride a bit on how well they prognosticate, so they build up a coterie of inside sources they can tap into - usually one taste only - before the draft.

First guy to keep your eye on is Sports Ilustrated's Peter King, who invariably scores highest (or nearest to the top) in mock draft accuracy. Because it's a magazine that has to get printed, it's editorial deadline is usually a week or so before the Draft, so you get King's final mock earliest. It's worth checking out.

Next wave of mocks belong to local beat writers. They start to dribble out a few days before Draft Day, but the really cagey writers will wait until the Wed. night deadline to file their mocks so that they appear in the Thursday paper before the Draft; thereby maximizing their opportunity to account for some of the last minute trades that are bound to occur. Usually, the local beat writers in each NFL city will have different (& more accurate) forecasts of whom the local team will draft, so it pays to check them out online. And because many beat writers network with other beat-writers in other cities, they'll share information and you'll begin to pick up patterns consisting of clusters of local writers who have nearly identical mocks; all containing the same "surprise" picks.

So pay attention, boys and girls - it starts to get really good, starting about now.

 No News is... -- Holmdel, NJ  -- April 11, 2011 -- The reason why I'm not blogging more is because there's very little in the NFL to blog about. The League and the NFLPA are in the midst of their inevitable Kubuki Dance (which will go on and on until it stops - we're guessing not any time soon). That makes the Draft center stage (which is how it should be) - except that, because draft info started coming at us hard & fast as early as last December, all the noteworthy news about Combine scores, Pro Days, Fast Risers, Stock Droppers, Off the Field Baggage etc. (which usually dribbles out gradually) was dropped on us all at once. This, in turn, has left the media to speculate ad-nauseum about such burning issues as: "Is Gabbert really a franchise quarterback?" "WIll the Bengals ease out Ochocinqo and draft a WR?" "Is Newton the next Elway or the next Vince Young?"

Today, I checked the ESPN Rumor page (we keep an updated Rumor Chart by draft selection mumber). Guess what? There was nothing new? From the standpoint of running a website, it's a beautiful thing (because it gives me time to keep current on draft news and to tweak the site to add more features - for example, I've linked each player on my Position Rankers page to his detailed write ups.

Regarding what the Cardinals will do at #5 - I'm still hoping that Von Miller falls to us and that we grab him. But more and more draft experts are torturing us with rumors that Miller will never last past #3 or #4. This leaves me in a quandary as to whom I hope we'll take if we don't draft Miller. Let me put it this way" In response to a question on ASFN about which top 10 draft picks I'd feel (a) happy, (b) neutral or (c) sad about if we drafted them, my reply was: "Call me Mr. Sunshine - I'd be happy with any of them."  There are 9 prospects; any of whom I'd be very happy getting. They include (in no particular order): Gabbert, Newton, Green, J Jones, Dareus, Fairley, Miller, Quinn, Paterson. (The Prince is at the top of the next echelon and I've dropped Bowers out of my Top list until he can prove otherwise).

But I must admit, that new (some would say "dangerous") thinking is beginning to creep into my conscious mind. I dwell over the available free agent veteran QB's - Kolb. McNabb, Palmer, Bulger, Hasselbeck - and none of them can get me to jump up and down doing a dance. Well...I am hopeful that Palmer might regain his mojo and that Hasselbeck and McNabb might have another year's worth left of the proverbial gas in the tank, but that's kind of like hoping for an inside-straight.

I must also admit to being shell-shocked by two recent events in the Cardinal quarterback universe: (1) Our Franchise QB of the Future strategy (code-name: "Leinart") fell apart last year. (2) Our Go With the Vet (& give our youngsters time to develop) strategy (code-name: "Anderson! May Day!") proved equally disasterous.

So here we are once again - faced with two identical main strategies: (1) The Franchise QB Thingy (only this time with Gabbert or Newton) and (2) The Veteran FA Savior (McNabb? Hasselbeck? Palmer)? Are we doomed to make the same mistake twice? Maybe, but not necessarily. First of all, we're going to have to do something  (or simply stick with Skelton, Bartel and/or Hall). My suggestion: Follow Satchel Paige's advice (he said: "Don't look back; someone may be gaining on you"), put past errors in the waste-can and make a QB based on the best info our scouts and coaches can provide us. If it means biting the bullet and signing a veteran re-tread (and drafting a rookie later on as insurance), so be it. But if our FO decides that, in Gabbert or Newton, we'd have a better chance of possibly winning in the short range and definitely becoming a consistent winner in a couple of years, then they ought to pull the trigger and draft either one if they're available. (Note - And if they're not, we'd automatically have Miller, Peterson or Dareus to choose from).

All of which is to say: "I don't have a clue about who we may or may not draft." But, like I said, earlier, "call me Mr. Sunshine. Unless we do something really dumb like trading down too far to get a blue-chipper, we're 100% assured of getting a really good young football player.

Supplemental Picks Announced -- Holmdel, NJ  -- March 26, 2011 --Seems kind of early this year. The League announced that 32 extra picks will be awarded 23 teams to compensate for such things as free-agent losses. For those of you who thought the Cardinals would rack up a bevy of extra picks to make up for the loss of Boldin, Rolle, Warner etc., guess again.

The Cardinals added a whopping one supplementary pick - #248 (not very far away from Mr. Irrelevent). You shouldn't be surprised, the Cards always seem to get short-changed compared to other NFL teams.

I can't give you an iron-clad seven-round Draft Order list yet - the League hasn't released the official list, and there are discrepencies among the various draft guides. (For example, Pro Football Draft Guide gives us an extra pick in the sixth round. Neither USA Today nor Lindy's gives us that pick. Also - Pro Draft Guide and USA Today take away our 7th round pick. Lindy's doesn't go that deep into the draft).

For the time being, I've plotted all seven rounds of picks (based on best info available and subject to change). For you mocksters - according to thiis information, the Cards picks are at #5 in the first round, #38 in the second round, #68 in the third round, #103 in the fourth round, #136 in the fifth round, #170 in the sixth round and 248 (our lone compensatory pick) in the seventh round.

Links to all BRS draft info can be reached by clicking here.

Things Beginning to Make Sense ...Holmdel, NJ - -  March 23, 2011 -- The daunting task of earranging the large hodge-podge of prospects into some semblance of order is beginning to be clearer. No doubt, each fan's (indeed each team's) Draft Board will differ from one another; but, still, you get the feeling that everyone is beginning to get a sense of how they expect all the pieces to fall into place.

The way I see it, the Top 6 players on the Cardinals Board will include Von Miller, Peterson, the two QB's (Gabbert and Newton) and the two DT's (Dareus and Fairley) with Bowers, Quinn and the two WR's (Green and J Jones) lurking at the fringes.

The good news is that (if we keep the pick) the Cardinals are guaranteed of getting one of those 5, 6 or 10 players. (And if they liked all 10, they might even be able to trade down from #5 to no later than #10 and still get a prospect they really like.

Although the "position-need"factor is built into each player's rating (& ranking) I hope we'll at least stay close to the concept of drafting the best available player. There are a couple of reasons for this: (1) past drafting errors (Levi Brown, Matt Leinart and Tommy Knight three that come to mind) resulted when we drafted for need instead of pure ability. (2) "Deep" positions can get thin very quickly (for example, WR). For this reason - If we felt Peterson or Dareus were clearly superior to the other prosepcts and one was available at #5, I wouldn't worry about logjams behind Dan Williams and Branch or DRC and Toler. Same thing with J Jones or Green - If our FO felt they were clearly better than anyone else available, they shouldn't worry about already having Fitz, Breaston, Doucet, Roberts or Williams. At the very worst, they could always trade a surplus player. (As Wiz says: "Competition is a good thing").

That said - I still hope Von Miller will be on our board at #5.

 Onward...Holmdel, NJ - March 18, 2011 -  There seem to be two parallel NFL universes, with time marching on in both cases. In one dimension, you have the League and NFLPA pointing fingers and posturing over the Lockout issue. The other one contains the draft - with all its various complex aspects (i.e. you've got your Pro Days, Newton vs. Gabbert, Dareus vs. Fairley, Is Peterson really that good to be picked #1? yada yada.

A few random thoughts to fill up what otherwise is a pretty spare Draft cupboard:

• Interesting that Wiz was at Auburn to observe Newton's Pro Day, but left it up to Mike Miller to check out Gabbert. Here's how I see it: First of all, forget about Newton - The Cards would have to commit to a major overhaul of their offense to accomodate Cam's unique skill-set.

• That leaves Gabbert. If the Cardinals are at least pursuing this as one of several options, I'm guessing that they're taking a long hard look at what took place leading up to the selection of Matt Leinart (which didn't turn out all that well). What did the scouting reports say? How did the interviews go? What were their other drafting options? Were there any "tells" that might have predicted where the wheels might come off the wagon? In exploring the possibility of drafting Gabbert, I'm guessing that the FO would have to draw comparisons with Leinart and come away very impressed by the QB from Mizzoou. Otherwise - we already have Skelton.

• Skelton remains a potential QBOF (with size, big-arm, brains, temperment etc.) to develop into something special.  He may not be ready for prime-time yet nor a sure-fire lock to make it, but neither would most NFL rookies (including quite possibly Gabbert). So unless Gabbert knocked the socks off the Cardinal brain-trust, I'm guessing they'll opt to troll for a veteran like Donovan McNabb or Carson Palmer who can fill a year's worth of experience-void while Skelton continues to make progress. I do, however, expect the Cardinals to add at least one rookie QB through the draft (as "Skelton insurance") because "you never know."

 Lockouts, Decertifications and Pro Days (Oh My)...Holmdel, NJ - March 13, 2011 - When you edge past the age of 70, one of the most unpleasant thing that can happen to you (other than, I guess, dying) is to be faced with a whole range of time-critical obligations (like getting your taxes done, keeping the BRS up to date and getting your mom-in-law to daily medical appointments) only to fall prey to the latest upper-respiratory "plague" to hit the citizens of the Northeast in late winter. All I can tell you is that (a) you cough a lot (enough to sustain a major glue factory), (b) your temperature and BP fluctuate like a ping pong ball and (c) you don't feel like doing a gol' darned thing - except you can't get away with that. Someone's got to drive Mom to the doctor. Someone's got to file the bleeping taxes and who else is gonna update the BRS draft info?

All of which is to say - I'm not as on top of the Draft as I'd like to be, but the taxes are filed and making the 40 minute round trip drive to the docs isn't exactly Afghanistan. Plus I just compiled all of Gil Brandt's Pro Day material to date and will start posting it for each player starting tomorrow.

In a sense, therefore, the final collision of the NFL and NFLPA comes as a godsend (because there will be less news I'll have to write about as I play catch-up re the Draft. Speaking of which. There's death. There's taxes. And now there's the Draft (Not even the lockdown and decertification will prevent it from happening). How about that?

A quick observation on compensation from my Tylenol-addled brain: First, if the League wants to avoid an unfavorable anti-trust judgment - since it considers itself to be a single organization consisting of 32 subsidiaries - it will have to continue to be considered a "natural monopoly" similar to any other public utility. It therefore should logically be required to open up its books - including each of its subsidiaries (i.e. the teams).

The only plausible argument the League might counter with might be that each team's way of doing business financially is part of their competitive strategy and therefore confidential. (If I were a judge, mediator or arbitrator, I'd have a hard time swallowing that argument.

According to media reports, the two sides are bickering over how to divide $9-billion dollar pie, with all the Hollywood "agent-speak" mumbo-jumbo brought to bear on respective arguments; my favorite of which is basing percentages on Net Revenue instead of Gross Receipts. While League or Team Net Revenues reflect risk-element, cost-priorites etc. whereas Gross Receipts don't, "creative accounting" can result in an obscene amount of unexplained money made to disappear between the Gross and the Net. For this reason, 100%-rock solid accurate numbers must be provided by the League and its member teams.

Without rock-solid financial numbers, there will always be murkiness (& distrust) over such things as the length of contracts, the value of rookies, the fairness of working conditions, what to pay injured players and the worth of medical and pension benefits. Just one fan's opinion, but if the League were to come 100% clean with its numbers, I believe most if not all the missing piecesof the puzzle - both big and small - would fall into place.

Meanwhile, I note that our new DC Ray Horton attended Alabama's Pro Day. For obvious reasons, I don't think he was there to check out their RB (Ingram). But their defensive tackle - Darius - is considered by many to be a Top 5'er. I realize we used a #1 on Dan Williams a year ago, but did he do enough last season to convince everyone he was the answer at NT? Just wondering out loud (My top guy is still Von Miller).

 Welcome to the BRS Annual 2011 Draft Issue. Holmdel NJ  - March 2, 2011 -  It will be a work in progress - with new material posted to update existing pages and add new ones; so be sure to visit early and often. The centerpiece of the Draft Issue will be our Draft Master Summary page - which will provide links to everything draft-related. To get started, go there first.

One thing I've noticed this year is the heavy and rich amount of data for more and more players. When I first started doing this, I'd be hard pressed to find info about the top ten players for most positions. Then it became 15 players. Now we're up to as many as 30 - 35 players for certain positions.

Deepest position seems to be the D-Line - especially DT. The O-line is pretty deep too, but there are fewer can't miss prospects at the top to go with the large number of guys who have a solid shot at making an NFL roster. Guard and center are pretty good - there seems to be a trend-change at guard and center, with these positions no longer taboo in the first round.

Shallowest positions seem to be at RB and TE, and I'm not thrilled about the top of the QB class (although there seems to be a decent number of Brady or Warner type later round picks and UDFA's who, in the end, could surprise us all.

The enigma will be at what might best be described as: "Running QB." To my knowledge, no one has answered the question: "If college offenses are moving toward spreads/guns/pistols and away from pro sets with the QB under center, who's to say that pro offenses shouldn't (or will not) follow suit?" Follow-up question: "Why does there have to be an 'adjustment to the pro game' by direct-snap QB's? Why wouldn't one or more NFL teams adjust their offense to accomodate strong-armed QB's who can run as well as they can pass?" And then the final follow-up: "If a team were to decide to go to a spread/direct snap offense, wouldn't they be well-advised to stock their QB larder with multi-threat passers/runners (to avoid the risk of the star QB being injured and no similar-styled backup to replace him)?" I'm just sayin'...

The Combine - NFL Network's coverage of the 2011 Combine was nothing short of sensational. Not only did the viewer get a heavy amount of detailed input about most of the players, but we fans also got a tremendous amount of inside stuff about what scouts look for in players, what teams are looking for in the way of physical attributes, techniques etc. and just a lot of good back & forth football talk among Mayock, Charles Davis, Billig, Mora, Eisen, Sapp and others. Til now, I'd always been a numbers guy when watching the Combine, but it was the position-drills that provided the most insight.

I didn't realize that what teams look for in an offensive linemen (other than the obvious - like long arms to fend off edge-rushers) are guys with short legs and long torso's (to give them a lower center of gravity and greater leverage when they have to anchor. And I never knew that, instead of simply trying to outjump defenders for the ball,  receivers have to position themselves between the defender and the ball in order to prevent interceptions and make room for the grab.

Cards at #5 - Needs and Prospects - No team (including the Cardinals) is going to telegraph its punches, so we probably won't know whether the Cardinals will (a) opt for an edge rusher, (b) decide that one of the three top QB's is "their guy", (c) fall in love with a guy at another position or (d) decide to trade #5 for players or picks. What I think is most likely to happen is that the Cards will pick up a veteran QB and bypass Newton, Gabbert or Locker in order to grab Von Miller. If Miller isn't available, they could go in several directions. They could go the LT route and draft Solder, Carimi or Costanzo. Or they could snap up another NT like Dareus or a penetrator like Fairly. Or even jump all over a premier corner like Peterson or Amukamara. If I were a betting man -and the decision had to be made right now, I'd place most of my marbles on Miller.

Kaepernick's Write-Up - The funky looking Kaepernick write-up has (I think) been fixed. If you're still getting something that looks weird, right-click and hit "Refresh" or "Reload.".

Now that the basic player info has been posted (although more info will be added regularly as Draft Day approaches), I hope to be posting with a little more regularity than since the end of the regular season. Stay tuned.